Rust Belt

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Lore & Background

First employed by political analyst Kevin Phillips in his 1969 book The Emerging Republican Majority, the term 'Sun Belt' became synonymous with the southern third of the nation in the early 1970s. In this period, economic and political prominence shifted from the Midwest and Northeast to the South and West. Factors such as the warmer climate, the migration of workers from Mexico, and a boom in the agriculture industry allowed the southern third of the United States to grow economically. The climate spurred not only agricultural growth, but also the migration of many retirees to retirement communities in the region, especially in Florida and Arizona. Industries such as aerospace, defense, and oil boomed in the Sun Belt as companies took advantage of the low involvement of labor unions in the region (due to more recent industrialization, 1930s–1950s) and the proximity of military installations that were major consumers of their products. The oil industry helped propel states such as Texas and Louisiana forward, and tourism grew in Florida, and Southern California. More recently, high tech and new economy industries have been major drivers of growth in California, Florida, Texas, and other parts of the Sun Belt. Texas and California rank among the top five states in the nation with the most Fortune 500 companies.

Reader's Guide

Of cities with a population greater than 20,000 residents from July 2024 to July 2025, 10 of the top 15 fastest growing as a percentage of population and 11 of the top 15 in terms of largest numeric increase were located in the Sun Belt. Additionally, 86 percent of the top 50 zip codes that saw the largest increases in new residents since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic were in Texas, Florida, and Arizona. The traditional explanations for the growth are increasing productivity in the South and West and increasing demand for Sun Belt amenities, especially its pleasant weather. Job decline in the Rust Belt, along with rising cost of living in several Northeastern states, is another major reason for migration. In 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau projected that approximately 88% of the nation's population growth between 2000 and 2030 would occur in the Sun Belt. California, Texas, and Florida were each expected to add more than 12 million people during that time, which would make them by far the most populous states in America. Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas were expected to be the fastest-growing states. Events leading up to and including the 2008–2009 recession led some to question whether growth projections for the Sun Belt had been overstated. The economic bubble that led to the recession appeared, to some observers, to have been more acute in the Sun Belt than other parts of the country. Additionally, the traditional lure of cheaper labor markets in the region compared with America's older industrial centers has been eroded by overseas outsourcing trends. One of the greatest threats facing the belt in the coming decades is water shortages. Communities in California are making plans to build multiple desalination plants to supply fresh water and avert near-term crises. Texas, Georgia, and Florida also face increasingly serious shortages because of their rapidly expanding populations and high per-capita water consumption. Lingering effects from the Great Recession slowed, and in some places even stopped, the migration from the Frost Belt to the Sun Belt, according to data tracking people's movements over the year from July 2012 – 2013. Americans remained cautious about moving to a different state over this period. However, migration to the Sun Belt from the Frost Belt resumed again, according to 2015 Census data estimates, with growing migration to the Sun Belt and out of the Frost Belt. By the 2020s, the United States' fastest-growing cities were in Sun Belt states and, in addition to the US South, Americans favored the Sun Belt for relocation.

Did You Know?

• The term 'Sun Belt' was first employed by political analyst Kevin Phillips in his 1969 book The Emerging Republican Majority.
• 86 percent of the top 50 zip codes that saw the largest increases in new residents since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic were in Texas, Florida, and Arizona.
• In 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau projected that approximately 88% of the nation's population growth between 2000 and 2030 would occur in the Sun Belt.
• Texas and California rank among the top five states in the nation with the most Fortune 500 companies.
• The Sun Belt has the highest number of distinct ecosystems: chaparral, deciduous, desert, grasslands, temperate rainforest, and tropical rainforest.